Historical energy overview & why there is no consensus for the future

Transcription

1 Historical energy overview & why there is no consensus for the future Carey King, PhD Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Jackson School of Geosciences

2 There are widely divergent viewpoints on the future of energy resources & technology 2

3 Limits to Growth resource constraints are real Main conclusions global ecological constraints (related to resource use and emissions) would have significant influence on global developments in the twenty-first century. humanity might have to divert much capital and manpower to battle these constraints possibly so much that the average quality of life would decline sometime during the twenty-first century. Early action could reduce damage caused by approaching global limits 3

4 The Bottomless Well. we will not run out of energy What lies at the bottom of the bottomless well isn t oil, it s logic. Fuels recede, demand grows, efficiency makes things worse, but logic ascends, and with the rise of logic we attain the impossible infinite energy, perpetual motion, and the triumph of power. It will all run out but we will always find more. Energy efficiency leads to more consumption Rebound effect, or Jevons Paradox More energy consumption is always better 4

5 Global Energy Trends

6 Population (millions) Energy (Quads) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 World Population and Energy: Today G. W. Bush President Population 9/11/ Year Energy Facebook

7 Population (millions) Energy (Quads) World Population and Energy: Current Lives 7,000 6,000 5,000 OPEC/Arab Oil Embargo AT&T Cellular Network ,000 3,000 Population Commercial Internet Myspace ,000 1,000 Energy Year 7

8 Population (millions) Energy (Quads) World Population and Energy: Industrial Times 7, ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Newcomen s Steam Engine United States formed! Parson s Steam Turbine (electricity) Phonograph, Light bulb Population First TV Energy Year 8

9 Population (millions) Energy (Quads) World Population and Energy: Human Civilization 7,000 6,000 5,000 Population Energy ,000 Middle Ages 300 3,000 2,000 1,000 Egyptian Pyramids Ancient Greeks Fall of Roman Empire Year Age of Fossil Fuels 9

10 Snapshot of World Energy Reserves (~ 28,000 EJ cumulative since 0 A.D.; 18,000 EJ since 1950) Resource Type Proved Reserves (EJ) Additional Resource (EJ) Coal (WEC) 20,000 25, Oil and NG Liquids (WEC) 6,800 3,450 Oil Shale, bitumen, Extra Heavy-Oil (WEC, 1) ~1,900 41,000 Natural Gas (WEC) 7, Uranium (2) (< $130/kg) 1,400 2, ,000 TOTAL Fossil 37,000 43,000 45,000 Hydropower (WEC) 59/yr 148/yr Biomass (terrestrial NPP) 27 (3a) 1,900 (3b) Solar (4) (total resource) N/A 2,780,000/yr TOTAL Renewable/yr ~ 100 +? 2,780,000 (1) Resource for bitumen and heavy oil is estimated discovered oil in place. (2) Assuming use in light water reactors and open fuel cycle. (3a) Proved Reserves ~ sustainable (Field et al., Trends in Ecology and Evolution). (3b) Resource (Moriarity and Honnery, Intl. Journal of Hydrogen Tech.); Smil (2008) Energy in Nature and Society (p. 72). (4) Solar insolation to Earth surface. Stocks in the ground (stored there for free). Flows in the environment (mostly not stored for free). WEC: (1), (2), & (4) from World Energy Council (2007) Survey of Energy Resources. 10

11 Energy & technological change with longterm context

12 Why do we care about energy? Fundamentally high quality energy supplies (mostly fossil) have enabled economic growth and prosperity as the modern world knows it today Most technologies are not possible without cheap and high quality energy supplies Economic growth has a hard time continuing without cheap energy supplies 12

13 Human Development Index Human Development Index Life expectancy index Education Index (2/3 literacy, 1/3 enrollment) GDP index Country Comparison: HDI vs. Energy per Person Mozambique, DR Congo, Ethiopia China What s the difference? Japan, Germany USA GJ/(person*year) Bahrain United Nations Development Programme, Iceland 13

14 Human Development Index An inflection seems to emerge near 100 GJ/person/yr Human Development Index Japan, Germany Bahrain Life expectancy index Education Index (2/3 literacy, 1/3 enrollment) Mozambique, DR Congo, Ethiopia China USA Iceland GDP index GJ/(person*year) United Nations Development Programme, (2008) 14

15 Less than 1.5 billion people at > 100 GJ/person World Average ~ 77 GJ/person 23% of population at 100 GJ/person World Energy Council (2007), Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to

16 Historical Today: What is energy for? 21% 34% 25% 16% ~ 3% for food ~50% for food Smil, Vaclav. (2003) Energy at the Crossroads 16

17 A decreasing number of hours for agriculture translated to economic growth, new job types US farming 373 million hectares 1 If all farming was 3 hrs/ha/yr 0.3% of work hours < 5% of Western labor employed by agriculture Fossil fuels dominate after 1800 Ours is a fossilfueled civilization, and its dependence on coals and hydrocarbons cannot be shed without profoundly reshaping the entire society. (Smil, 2008)

18 Expansion of energy & technology post-ww II R. Haas et al., Energy Policy 36 (2008)

19 People consume energy that s available to substitute for physical work/labor Physical labor has decreased considerably since 1800s Energy = Force distance (= work) Pre-1800 UK coal mining involved carrying coal on backs of women, children, and men We traded fuels + technology for physical labor Since we re not working physically as much, we have a different economy 19

20 How do we decide among current and future energy options?

21 Holistic view of energy tradeoffs create different visions of the future National Security Environment Economics Tend to be few options here 21

22 Let s think about the Environment National Security Environment Economics 22

23 1 Bgal of coal ash breaches Tennessee Valley Authority earthen dam in TN (Dec 2008) 26 homes damaged 49/431 coal-ash storage facilities as high hazard 23

24 EPA proposed rule to limit water intake at power plants New generation units subject to closed loop cooling towers Possible some existing power and industrial facilities 1,260 total existing facilities (760 likely already comply) Minimum fish kill requirement or max. intake velocity 24

25 Hydraulic fracturing shale for gas/oil becoming more extensive in practice and debate Energy Policy Act (2005) exempted hydraulic fracturing from federal Safe Drinking Water Act States still regulate groundwater EPA reviewing, looking into drinking water impacts Creates animosity public and competing industries A lot of water or a little? Millions of gallons per well ~ 1-10 gallons of water/mmbtu of Barnett Shale NG (2005) 1 Akin to historic oil production 1. Bene, J.; Harden, B.; Griffin, S.; Nicot, J. P. Assessment of groundwater use in the Northern Trinity Aquifer due to urban growth and Barnett Shale development.; King and Webber (2008) Env. Sci. & Tech. 25

26 No: Don t just frac it 26

27 No: Don t just frac it Texas license plate Yes: Just FRAC IT 27

28 Many fuel alternatives seem to consume more water than petroleum travel King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21),

29 [US FWS, 2002] Environmentalists vs. Environmentalists Wind turbines kill birds Those dog gone cats! Wind turbines are eyesores Texas Coast (King Ranch vs. Kennedy Ranch) wind 29

30 Policies for alternative measures to GDP focus on environmental limits Ecological Footprint measures how much water and land area a human population requires 30

31 U.S. national security National Security Environment Economics 31

32 If the US has large energy resources, why the security concern? US has abundant energy resources that are roughly economic today Coal: (largest world reserves) Natural Gas: (> 100 current consumption and new shale estimates much debated) Oil: US is world s 3 rd largest producer (< Russia, Saudi Arabia) 5.5 MMBBL/day crude oil + condensate (2010) Wind and solar: insolation & area are good 32

33 US energy security is based upon our high consumption of oil Because transportation is still dominated by oil, US energy security centers on oil US consumed 19.1 MMBBL/d petroleum (2010) 22% of world consumption < 5% of world population US has only ~ 2% of world oil reserves US imports ~ 50%-60% of petroleum for consumption Oil is unique in that it is the only fuel US consumes much more than domestic production 33

34 We can do it: Turning oil into salt (enable different fuels; stop $ to OPEC) Gal Luft Anne Korin James Woolsey (former director CIA) 34

35 Forget oil and salt security... Coal keeps the monsters away! and enough power to keep the monsters away 35

36 Oil is the most economically influential energy resource National Security Environment Economics 36

37 Important indicators are the percentage of our expenditures and income going to energy 2007 US median income ~ $31,000 $4K/$31K~ 13% EIA. Annual Energy Review

38 If energy gets too expensive, GDP stops 2008 EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008). 38

39 Oil expenditures as % of GDP seem to indicate a threshold for recessions Steven Kopits: _What_Price_can_America_Afford_-_DWL_website_version.pdf 39

40 Future oil supplies are costlier: lower net energy (EROI) = higher price Oil price ($/BBL) $250 $200 $150 $100 Oil Shale Oil Sands (marginal BBL today) $50 $0 Recent Range Historical Range EROI = Energy Return EROI on Investment = E out /E in King, C.W. and Hall, C.A.S. (2011), in press. 40

41 Converting to end-use fuels raises price (and lowers EROI) more Oil price ($/BBL) $250 $200 $150 $100 Corn ethanol, algal biodiesel Oil Shale Gasoline Oil Sands (marginal BBL today) $50 $0 Recent Range Historical Range EROI = Energy Return EROI on Investment = E out /E in King, C.W. and Hall, C.A.S. (2011), in press. 41

42 Oil expenditures have fluctuated the most, and the US consumes more oil than it has, 42

43 US energy policy is fragmented, perceived to be dominated by BIG OIL, 43

44 many energy options have environmental tradeoffs we don t want, 44

45 but we still think we can get all energy without building anything, NIMBY: Not In My BackYard BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone 45

46 if we re not killing the environment, we might be indirectly killing ourselves (oil $ terrorism), 46

47 or if not helping terrorists, then maybe state-backed antipathy toward the U.S., 47

48 so the US goal has clearly (!) been to reduce oil imports, Me too! In 2010 US spent ~ $300 Billion for imports Terrorists of 9/11/01 needed < $1 million 48

49 Value of US Energy Imports EIA. Annual Energy Review

50 and the world has caught up to the traditional economic powers (US, EU, Japan). Emerging markets can grow more on higher-priced energy than can developed markets 50

51 U.S. sectoral energy consumption saw shifts in 1970s and 2000s Offshoring? Globalization? EIA. Annual Energy Review

52 Btu/$2005 US Lack of transition to higher quality fuels is exemplified by use of coal in China, and 35,000 30,000 25,000 Energy Intensity China 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 USA World China USA World EIA. Uses $2005 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). 52

53 tco 2 /$2000 Lack of transition to higher quality fuels is exemplified by use of coal in China, and China CO 2 intensity World USA China USA World 0.5 World EIA. Uses $2005 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). 53

54 Any International cooperation for GHG must deal with global economic transition OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook

55 Long-term energy future is a big guess

56 Fuel transition models do not hold to simple pattern Energy production technologies are very different than energy consumption technologies 90% Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear 50% Wood Solar, Fusion 10% 1% Marchetti, 1977; Luís de Sousa

57 Recent US petroleum consumption projections keep getting revised downward Oil price rise and economic downturn post-2008 weighs heavily on oil consumption prospects 2004, , 2010, 2011 US EIA Annual Energy Outlooks 2004 to 2011, Reference cases 57

58 The Limits to Growth conclusion There is no question about whether growth in the ecological footprint will stop; the only questions are when and by what means. The Bottomless Well conclusion Societies that expand and improve their energy supplies overwhelm those that don t. Humanity is destined to find and consume more energy, and still more, forever 58

59 % of primary energy RENEWABLE % workforce in food + Energy The past has shown considerable change 100% 0% R. Haas et al., Energy Policy 36 (2008)

60 Population (millions) Energy (Quads) but short and long term viewpoints create different perspectives on future prospects. 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 World Population and Energy: The Future Past Future Continuous growth? Year Level Off? Medium Decline? Large Decline?

61 What will change and stay the same? Namtso Lake, Tibet 15,500 ft Yak Dung (old energy) PV Solar Cell (new energy) 61

62 Thank You WEBBER ENERGY GROUP Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy Carey King