Mapping the Blue Marble: NASA Research to Improve Monitoring and Forecasting of Water Resources
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1 Mapping the Blue Marble: NASA Research to Improve Monitoring and Forecasting of Water Resources John Bolten Associate Program Manager NASA Applied Sciences Program Water Resources Bradley Doorn, Forrest Melton, Christine Lee NASA Applied Sciences Program AWRA April 7 th, 2017 Washington, DC
2 2
3 Distribution and Water Use on Earth Source: Multiple, as reported by the World Bank,
4 Global Population Density Source: Population Labs 4
5 Projected Global Population Density Murray et al., Journal of Hydrology,
6 Blue Water Availability Per Capita 6
7 Global Water Cycle Oki and Kanae, Science,
8 The Water Landscape How can we reduce our uncertainty in the propagation of hydroclimatic extremes? For example, will a meteorological drought lead to a hydrological or agricultural drought? How? When? Where? How do phases in P-E relate to soil moisture, surface drainage, base flow, groundwater storage, river discharge, and vegetation productivity? 8
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10 Objectives With an integrated system perspective, use examples drawn from current research in the field of hydrology to Explain the basic underlying science and interactions. Discuss outstanding issues and challenges. Illustrate the state of art in earth observing technologies and strategies for environmental monitoring, assessment, and prediction. 10
11 Show Me the Water Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate, caused by a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period Water shortage may be caused by drought, overuse of available water resources, or pollution >1 billion people lack access to improved water 1.8 million people die each year of diarrheal diseases, equivalent to 12 Boeing 747 crashes each day The 2011 Texas drought cost $7.6 billion The 2012 U.S. drought cost $40 billion Show me the Water! 11
12 Monitoring 12
13 Rain and Snowfall 13
14 Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent 14
15 Evapotranspiration 15
16 Soil Moisture 16
17 Surface Water and River Flow 17
18 Groundwater 18
19 Inadequacy of Surface Observations Issues: - Spatial coverage of existing stations - Temporal gaps and delays - Many governments unwilling to share - Measurement inconsistencies - Quality control - (Un)Representativeness of point obs Global Telecommunication System meteorological stations. Air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity only. USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network. Very few groundwater records available outside of the U.S. River flow observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre. Warmer colors indicate greater latency in the data record. 19
20 Remote Sensing and Modeling 20
21 Stick man with club in his hands basic needs, followed food, lived near water
22 NASA Earth Science Missions and Instruments Altimetry-FO (Formulation in FY16; Sentinel-6/Jason-CS) Earth Science Instruments on ISS: RapidScat, CATS, LIS, SAGE III (on ISS), TSIS-1, OCO-3, ECOSTRESS, GEDI, CLARREO-PF
23 NASA Earth Science Missions and Instruments Altimetry-FO (Formulation in FY16; Sentinel-6/Jason-CS) Earth Science Instruments on ISS: RapidScat, CATS, LIS, SAGE III (on ISS), TSIS-1, OCO-3, ECOSTRESS, GEDI, CLARREO-PF Contributing to Water Cycle Studies
24 Precipitation Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) The GPM Core Observatory will provide improved measurements of precipitation from the tropics to higher latitudes Global (50S-50N) precipitation measurement GHz radiometers 13.6 GHz precipitation radar 27 Nov 1997 to present TRMM 14-year mean rainfall Launched Feb 28, 2014 Will use inputs from an international constellation of satellites to increase space and time coverage Improvements: - Longer record length - High latitude precipitation - including snowfall - Better accuracy and coverage 24
25 Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS Data Products: surface temperature chlorophyll fluorescence vegetation/land-surface cover, conditions, and productivity: - net primary productivity, leaf area index, and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation - land cover type, with change detection and identification; - vegetation indices corrected for atmosphere, soil, and directional effects; cloud mask, cirrus cloud cover, cloud properties characterized by cloud phase, optical thickness, droplet size, cloud-top pressure, and temperature; aerosol properties fire occurrence, temperature, and burn scars; total precipitable water sea ice cover snow cover derived evapotranspiration
26 Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) 31 January 2015 Instruments Radar(1.26 GHz) High resolution, moderate accuracy Radiometer (1.4 GHz) Moderate resolution, high accuracy Shared antenna Constant incident angle: 40 degrees 1000 km wide swath Orbit Sun-synchronous 6 am (Descending) / 6 pm (Ascending) 685 km altitude Global coverage every three days 26 Image courtesy:
27 Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) Stream Discharge and Surface Water Height Motivation: critical water cycle component essential for water resource planning stream discharge and water height data are difficult to obtain outside US find the missing continental discharge component Mission Concepts: Laser Altimetry Concept e.g. ICESat (GSFC) Radar Altimetry Concept e.g. Topex/Poseidon over Amazon R. Interferometer Concept (JPL) Targeted path Coincident w/ river reach Source: M. Jasinski/
28 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Aqua: MODIS, AMSR-E, etc. Soil Moisture Snow, Ice, Rainfall Vegetation Snow Radiation Traditional GRACE radiation-based remote sensing technologies cannot sense GRACE water below is the unique first few in its ability centimeters to of monitor the snowcanopy-soil levels, down water at all to column the deepest aquifer Matt Rodell NASA GSFC 28
29 GRACE Derived Terrestrial Water Storage Variations GRACE Science Goal: High resolution, mean and time variable gravity field mapping for Earth System Science applications Instruments: Two identical satellites flying in tandem orbit, ~200 km apart, 500 km initial altitude Key Measurement: Distance between two satellites tracked by K-band microwave ranging system Key Result: Information on water stored at all depths on and within the land surface GRACE measures changes in total terrestrial water storage, including groundwater, soil moisture, snow, and surface water. Animation of monthly GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly fields. A water storage anomaly is defined here as a deviation from the long-term mean total terrestrial water storage at each location. Matt Rodell NASA GSFC 29
30 Land Surface Model Structure LSMs solve for the interaction of energy, momentum, and mass between the surface and the atmosphere in each model element (grid cell) at each discrete time-step (~15 min) GRID SUBGRID HETEROGENEITY NEEDLELEAF TREES: 25% SHRUBS: 10% BARE SOIL: 15% GRASSLAND: 50% SURFACE VEGETATION ATMOSPHERE TRANSFER SCHEME Input - Output = Storage Change P + G in (Q + ET + G out ) = ΔS R n - G = L e + H System of physical equations: Surface energy conservation equation Surface water conservation equation Soil water flow: Richards equation Evaporation: Penman-Monteith equation etc. Matt Rodell NASA GSFC 30
31 Data Integration with a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) INTERCOMPARISON and OPTIMAL MERGING of global data fields SW RADIATION PRECIPITATION Satellite derived meteorological data used as land surface model FORCING ASSIMILATION of satellite based land surface state fields (snow, soil moisture, surface temp, etc.) MODIS SNOW COVER Ground-based observations used to VALIDATE model output SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT Examples from NASA s GLDAS Matt Rodell NASA GSFC 31
32 Applications 32
33 Monitoring Precipitation Memory Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission Global Precipitation Measurement Mission, Core Observatory
34 Leading Indicator of Vegetation Changes 34
35 How Can We Improve Global Crop Forecasts? Model Model + satellite observations 04/11/ /20/ /11/ /20/ Satellite-based soil moisture observations are improving USDA s ability to globally monitor agricultural drought and predict its short-term impact on vegetation health and agricultural yield. 35
36 How Can We Improve Global Crop Forecasts? AFWA Precip Model - AFWA 11/01-10/ /01-10/2015 Model + Satellite Observations AFWA precip artifact carried over to AFWA surf. SM 11/01-10/ Image courtesy: C. Reynolds Artifact corrected Better variability 36
37 Can we Isolate the Impact in Food Insecure Regions? NDVI/Soil Moisture Rank Cross-Correlation (R s ) [-] NDVI/Soil Moisture Rank Cross-Correlation (R s ) [-] Extratropical Land: Lag (L) = -1 month 0.6 Model-only (OL2) Model + LPRM (EnKF2) Model-only (OL2) Model + LPRM (EnKF2) ETSH Somalia 0.5 Eritrea 0.5 Angola ETNH Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Year Figure 1: Seasonal cycles of the rank correlation between open loop and EnKF 0.5 soil moisture anomalies with future vegetation anomalies (1 month) averaged within 0.4 the Extra-tropical Northern (ETNH; to 60 N) and Southern (ETSH; to 60 S) Hemispheres Chad Ethiopia Afghanistan Lag (L) [months] Figure 3: Comparisons between R s (L) OL2 and R s (L) EnKF2 over a range of L (i.e., 0 to 6 months) for sparsely-instrumented countries with moderate-to-severe food security issues. ΔR Figure 2: Global analysis of the net impact of assimilating AMSR-E soil moisture into the USDA water balance model. Bolten and Crow., 2012, GRL 37
38 Can We Improve End Of Season Yield Forecasts? Mladenova et al., 2017, JSTARS 38
39 Can We Improve End Of Season Yield Forecasts? Mladenova et al., 2017, JSTARS 39
40 Floods In the United States, an average of 100 people lose their lives in floods annually, with flood damage averaging more than $2 billion. The Midwest's "Great Flood of 1993" cost 48 lives and more than $12 billion. Flash floods are the number one weather-related killer in the United States 2,200 deaths in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, May 31, fatalities in Rapid City, South Dakota, June 9, killed in the Big Thompson Canyon nr Denver July 31, dead in Shadyside, Ohio, June 14, 1990 Source: NOAA 40
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42 Real Time Flood Impact Assessment Tool 42
43 Applying TRMM Precipitation for Landslide Hazard Assessment Source: D. Kirschbaum, NASA 43
44 Routine Lake Level Monitoring (Jason1/2 & ENVISAT) Satellite Radar Altimetry: Global Reservoir and Lake El evation Database 2/ 8/ 12 10:51 AM Toolbox Jason-2 Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor Map data 2012 MapLink, Tele Atlas Envisat Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (Beta) Contact: Charon Birkett, U. Maryland Map data 2012 MapLink, Tele Atlas Click here to add your Comments/Feedback Click here to download the Global Lake Graph file 44
45 How the Airborne Snow Observatory Works
46 Mapping the Sierra Nevada with ASO
47 TAF = thousand acre-feet Snow water equivalent Basin SWE 287 TAF Basin SWE 57 TAF April Basin SWE 154 TAF April Basin SWE 529 TAF April April
48 ASO in the drought ( ) and the near-average (2016) jpl.nasa.gov
49 Monitoring Central Valley Land Subsidence Highest subsidence directly affecting the California Aqueduct: Add video of subsidence timeseries Tom Farr, JPL, A 1.3 mile stretch of the California Aqueduct experienced >8 of subsidence, with maximum of 13 at the stretch closest to the center of the subsidence feature.
50 Subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley Zhen Liu, Vince Realmuto, Tom Farr, JPL jpl.nasa.gov
51 Determining the Extent of Fallowed Agricultural Land with Satellite Imagery during Drought PROJECT TEAM: NASA Ames Research Center, USGS, USDA National Ag. Statistics Service, California Dept. of Water Resources, NOAA, California State University Monterey Bay Landsat 5, 7, 8 30m / 0.25 acres Overpass every 8-16 days Forrest Melton, NASA ARC-CREST,
52 Determining the Extent of Fallowed Agricultural Land with Satellite Imagery during Drought PROJECT TEAM: NASA Ames Research Center, USGS, USDA National Ag. Statistics Service, California Dept. of Water Resources, NOAA, California State University Monterey Bay Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley August, 2016 Summer Idle Cultivated Emergent August, 2016 Summer Idle Cultivated Emergent For more information, contact or visit
53 Mapping Crop Water Requirements to Assist Growers in Optimizing Water Use PROJECT TEAM: NASA Ames Research Center, California Dept. of Water Resources, Western Growers Association, California State University, Univ. of California Cooperative Extension, Desert Research Institute, USDA Ag. Research Service, USGS, Booth Ranches, Chiquita, Constellation Wines, Del Monte Produce, Dole, Driscoll s, E & J. Gallo, Farming D, Fresh Express, Pereira Farms, Ryan Palm Farms Landsat 8 Sentinel-2A California s agricultural sector produced $54b In 2014 NASA SIMS web and mobile data services puts irrigation demand across 8 million acres of farm land directly into the hands of farmers and water managers Forrest Melton, NASA ARC, Students work hand in hand with growers to assess the accuracy of the satellite estimates and quantify benefits
54 NLDAS Data and Drought Monitor Over 33 years of hourly gridded precipitation, surface meteorology, and land-surface model output, including a real-time drought monitor NLDAS specifications and variables: 1/8 th -degree (~12km) hourly gridded data from Jan 1979 to near real-time North and West Input: Daily gauge precipitation analyses, NARR near-surface meteorology, NEXRAD radar data, bias-correcting GOES shortwave radiation An example of the NLDAS Drought Monitor (below) showing soil moisture percentiles of the 4 land-surface model ensemble-mean (Mosaic, Noah, VIC, & SAC) against the longterm soil moisture climatology of NLDAS. Figure from 13 June Output: Surface fluxes, snow cover/depths, soil moistures/temperatures, runoff, many others NLDAS datasets and services are available from the NASA GES DISC: Documentation on NLDAS, including a link to the NLDAS Drought Monitor: 54
55 Applying GRACE to Constrain Regional Groundwater depth (mm) depth (mm) surface water & snow soil moisture ground water GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage change The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite can monitor changes in terrestrial water storage and help close the water budget Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan Zaitchik, Rodell, and Reichle, J. Hydromet., Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Snow Water Equivalent Soil Moisture Groundwater Observed Groundwater GRACE Total Water Snow Water Equivalent Soil Moisture Groundwater Observed Groundwater GRACE Total Water 55
56 Groundwater Depletion in Northern India Water Storage Anomaly (cm) Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar Total Terrestrial Water Soil Water Groundwater Groundwater Trend Date GW = TWS SM SWE Rate of change of terrestrial water storage (cm/yr) from based on NASA/GRACE satellite observations. Groundwater continues to be depleted in the Indian states of Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana by about 16.0 km 3 /yr, reduced slightly from our previous ( ) estimate of 17.7 ±4.5 km 3 /yr (Rodell et al., Nature, 2009). 56
57 Scanning lidar Imaging spectrometer
58 GRACE-Based Flood Potential TWSA Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly Pmon Integrated Precipitation Anomaly Sdef Storage Deficit 58 REAGER AND FAMIGLIETTI, GRL 2009
59 Emerging Trends In Global Freshwater Storage Trends in terrestrial water storage (cm/yr), including groundwater, soil water, lakes, snow, and ice, as observed by GRACE during Alaska s glaciers have been melting at 84 km 3 /yr Greenland s ice sheet has been thinning at a rate of 142 km 3 /yr Russian droughts in 2010 and 2012 Groundwater is being depleted across northern India at rate of about 54 km 3 /yr due to pumping for irrigation Drought gave way to flooding in the Missouri River basin in 2011 Overexploitation of freshwater resources in the North China Plain Recent droughts in the southeastern U.S. and Texas Recovery from drought in the Amazon 2010 Chile earthquake and drought in southern Argentina Patagonian glacier melt The western Antarctic ice sheet has been thinning at a rate of 65 km 3 /yr Return to normal after wet years in early 2000s Drought recovery and flooding Depletion of water resources in Middle East exacerbated by drought Return to normal in the Okavango Delta after drought ended in 2007 GRACE observes changes in water storage caused by natural variability, climate change, and human activities such as groundwater pumping 59
60 Technologies and Tools Water Quality Analysis Tool (WQAT) Provides simplified access to remote sensing imagery of indicators of nutrient pollution (chlorophyll a = algal blooms) and for establishing chlorophyll criteria EPA s satellite remote sensing methodology for the Florida nutrient criteria rulemaking could be reproduced with WQAT GIS and Excel knowledge level (low barrier to entry) WQAT improves access and use of complex models as well as enhances and supports nutrient management decisions Target Opportunity Webinar to describe WQAT on Sept 24 Beta testing beginning end of Sept State participation welcome! Contact: lehrter.john@epa.gov Chlorophyll-a (mg/l)
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62 NASA Satellite Data Volumes
63 High Performance Computing and The Rise of the Cloud
64 NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Centralized Data Repository COMPUTING COLLABORATION (over 900 TB of data) (9PB, 250,000 cores) (over 540 members) Monthly global mosaic of Landsat data The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is virtual collaborative that brings scientists together in a knowledge-based social network and provides the necessary tools, computing power, and access to big data to accelerate research, innovation and provide transparency. ARC
65 NASA Applied Sciences Program 65
66 NASA Applied Sciences Program Water Resources Contact 66
67 Courtesy: alifayre 67
68 Thank you! John Bolten Associate Program Manager NASA Applied Sciences Program Water Resources Bradley Doorn, Forrest Melton, Christine Lee NASA Applied Sciences Program AWRA April 7 th, 2017 Washington, DC
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