To support any sound energy policy

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1 International Workshop on Energy Statistics Mexico, 2-5 December 2008 Do traditional supply-demand data give a sufficient basis for sound energy efficiency policies? Introduction to Energy Efficiency Indicators Jean-Yves Garnier Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency

2 Why is it important to have detailed energy efficiency indicators? To support any sound energy policy A need to know what are the sub-sectors sectors which consume too much energy (ex: trucks, heating, cement, offices,..) What is too much? A need to have benchmarking and best practices A need to compare with the situation in similar countries (climate, size, economy, ) To monitor progresses (or failures) of actions and programs on energy efficiency To be used as the basis for detailed modeling and forecasts

3 Contribution to Energy Savings from Sectors and End Uses 100% 80% Other Manufacturing 14% IEA-11 Space Heating 19% otal savings Percent of t 60% 40% 20% 0% Japan US EUR-8 Primary Metals 13% Nonmetallic Minerals 4% Chemicals 9% Paper & Pulp 2% Service 18% Appliances 3% Other Household 1% Car Travel 8% Air Travel 6% Truck Freight 1% Other Freight 2% Freight Transport Passenger Transport Households Service Manufacturing Indicators are useful to understand the past

4 as well as the future 1000 Other Electri icity con nsumptio on (TWh) 900 Circulation pumps PCs Standby Television i Dishwashing Clothes-drying Clothes-washing Refrigeration Lighting 200 Cooking Water heating Space cooling Space heating

5 1997 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% 150% 140% Total Energy 130% 120% 110% Basic energy statistics 1973 = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70%

6 1997 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% Total Energy 150% Total Energy, CC 140% 130% 120% 100% 110% 1973 = 100% 90% 80% 70%

7 1997 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% Total Energy 150% Total Energy, CC Total/Capita 140% 120% = 100% 130% 110% 1973 = 100% 90% 80% 70%

8 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% 150% 140% Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household 130% 1973 = 100% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70%

9 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 130% 1973 = 100% 160% 150% 140% 120% 110% 100% Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m 90% 80% 70%

10 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% Total Energy 130% 1973 = 100% 150% 140% 120% 110% 100% Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m Space heat/sq. m 90% 80% 70%

11 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 130% 1973 = 100% 160% Total Energy Total Energy, CC 150% Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m 140% Space heat/sq. m Useful space heat/sq. m 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Detailed indicators 70%

12 The more detailed information you collect the better you know what really happens 160% 150% Total Energy Space heat/sq. m 1973 = 140% 120% = 100%130% 110% 100% Macro and micro data can lead to diverging conclusions Macro 90% Micro 80% 70%

No breakdown by end use: - heating - DHW - lighting - cooking - air conditioning - appliances Energy Balance People's Republic of China / République populaire de Chine : 2005 Thousand tonnes of oil

& Waste APPROVISIONNEMENT Charbon Pétrole Produits Gaz Nucléaire Hydro Géotherm. Comb. Electricité Chaleur Total ET DEMANDE brut pétroliers solaire ren.

Marine Bunkers - - -7642 - - - - - - - -7642 Stock Changes -17345 788 288 - - - - - - - -16269 TPES 1087624 300965 17417 40137 13835 34143-223561 -532-1717153 Transfers - -74 88 - - - - - - - 13

-2672-1938 - - - -503-54660 -21545 Gas Works -6640 - -144 4841 - - - - - - -1943 Petroleum Refineries - -290405 283439 - - - - - - - -6966 Coal Transformation -69485 - - - - - - - - - -69485

-16009 TFC 373308 3905 266532 31852 - - - 222197 171355 43383 1112532 INDUSTRY SECTOR 279763 2509 35753 12366 - - - - 116217 29153 475761 Iron and Steel 102809-3011 894 - - - - 21882 3667 132263

13 No breakdown by end use: - heating - DHW - lighting - cooking - air conditioning - appliances Energy Balance People's Republic of China / République populaire de Chine : 2005 Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent / Milliers de tonnes d'équivalent pétrole SUPPLY AND Coal Crude Petroleum Gas Nuclear Hydro Geotherm. Combust. Electricity Heat Total CONSUMPTION Oil Products Solar Renew. etc. & Waste APPROVISIONNEMENT Charbon Pétrole Produits Gaz Nucléaire Hydro Géotherm. Comb. Electricité Chaleur Total ET DEMANDE brut pétroliers solaire ren. & déchets Production Imports Exports Intl. Marine Bunkers Stock Changes TPES Transfers Statistical Differences Electricity Plants CHP Plants Heat Plants Gas Works Petroleum Refineries Coal Transformation Liquefaction Plants Other Transformation Own Use Distribution Losses TFC INDUSTRY SECTOR Iron and Steel Chemical and Petrochemical Non-Ferrous Metals Non-Metallic Minerals Transport Equipment No breakdown by end Machinery Mining and Quarrying Food and Tobacco use - and 1577 by 218function - - of Paper Pulp and Printing Wood and Wood Products Construction 3200 buildings (hospitals, Textile and Leather Non-specified 4642 schools, hotels, 98 - offices, TRANSPORT SECTOR International Aviation - restaurants, etc.) Domestic Aviation Road Rail Pipeline Transport Domestic Navigation Non-specified OTHER SECTORS Residential Comm. and Publ. Services Agriculture/Forestry Fishing Non-specified NON-ENERGY USE in Industry/Transf./Energy of which: Feedstocks in Transport in Other Sectors What most organisations collects on a regular basis is limited to aggregated levels OTHER SECTORS Residential Comm. & Pub. Services Agriculture/Forestry Fishing Electr. Generated - GWh Electricity Plants CHP Plants Non-specified Heat Generated - TJ CHP Plants Heat Plants

14 Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World

15 Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World Production Mtoe TPES Mtoe Electricity Consumption TWh CO 2 Emissions Mt of CO

16 Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World Production Mtoe TPES Mtoe Electricity Consumption TWh CO 2 Emissions Mt of CO Production/TPES TPES/GDP toe / $ TPES/GDP(PPP) toe / $ PPP TPES/Population toe / capita

17 Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World Production Mtoe TPES Mtoe Electricity Consumption TWh CO 2 Emissions Mt of CO Production/TPES TPES/GDP toe / $ TPES/GDP(PPP) toe / $ PPP TPES/Population toe / capita Elec. Cons/Population kwh / capita

Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World Production Mtoe 3 834 1 641 419 11 468 TPES Mtoe 5 548 1 717 537 11 434 Electricity

32 TPES/GDP(PPP) toe / 000 2000$ PPP 0.18 0.22 0.16 0.21 TPES/Population toe / capita 4.74 1.32 0.49 1.78 Elec.

18 Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics OECD China India World Production Mtoe TPES Mtoe Electricity Consumption TWh CO 2 Emissions Mt of CO Production/TPES TPES/GDP toe / $ TPES/GDP(PPP) toe / $ PPP TPES/Population toe / capita Elec. Cons/Population kwh / capita CO 2 / TPES t CO 2 / toe CO 2 /GDP kg CO 2 / 2000 $ CO 2 / GDP (PPP) kg CO 2 / 2000 $ PPP CO 2 / Population t CO 2 / capita

19 Efficiency of Electricity Generation in Electricity plants Coal Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Rep. Denmark Finland Coal France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea Efficiency of Electricity Generation in Electricity Plants 33% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42% 41% 39% 39% 35% 32% 39% 37% 42% 36% Oil Efficiency of Electricity Generation in Electricity Plants Australia 33% Austria Belgium Canada Czech Rep. 39% 41% 40% 36% Denmark 20% Finland 38% Coal Oil France 37% Germany 40% Greece 36% Hungary 35% Iceland 30% Ireland 36% Italy 38% Japan 42% Korea 38% Luxembourg Luxembourg Mexico 36% Mexico 34% Netherlands 41% Netherlands NZ 34% NZ 30% Norway 65% Norway Poland Poland Portugal 40% Portugal 39% Slovak Rep. 30% Slovak Rep. 21% Spain 38% Spain 35% Sweden Sweden 41% Switzerland Switzerland Turkey 35% Turkey 35% UK 38% UK 29% USA 36% USA 35% South Africa 37% South Africa Brazil 29% Brazil 34% India 27% India 26% China 32% China 34% Russia Russia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% average average

20 The Indicator Pyramid TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons./Population Aggregated CO2/GDP PPP Indicators Efficiency i Elec. Prod. Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics Disaggregated Indicators Process Efficiency Cons./ton cement Heating Cons./sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) Dry process Condensing boiler Litre/100km (vintage)

Analysts need more detailed data EJ 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Hypothetical energy use without efficiency improvements Actual energy use Energy Savings 56% 0 1973 1980 1990 2000 2004

21 Analysts need more detailed data EJ Hypothetical energy use without efficiency improvements Actual energy use Energy Savings 56% Contribution of energy efficiency to limited increases in IEA energy consumption Average annual perc cent change 2% 1% 0% -1% Manufac-Households*Serviceturing transport Passenger Freight Other** transport Total 100% Long-term Economy-wide Energy Savings from Improvements in Energy Efficiency 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 28% 23% 16% 24% 23% 17% 21% 23% 10% 10% Average annual perc cent change 3% 2% 1% 0% Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements Energy efficiency improvements Actual energy use Energy efficiency improvements Actual energy use Impact of Energy Efficiency Improvements on Final Energy Use, IEA11

22 So, what could be done to bridge the gap (the IEA s example) Priority was given to cooperation Data on industry: network of industry association (WBCSD) Data on residential, services, transport: cooperation with the ODYSSEE programme of the European Commission for EU countries Cooperation with APEC for APEC Member Economies Direct contacts with national administrations (e.g. EIA (USDOE) for RECS, MECS, ) In 2006, the IEA defined templates to ease the reporting of the basic data by countries

23 The initial templates

24 TRANSPORT Detailed data on transport 10 6 Veh-km nnes-km tonnes Ton pass-km

25 Energy consumption broken down by end use Services Space Heating Space Cooling Lighting Other Energy Use in Services Sector

26 Diffusion, stocks and average consumption of selected appliances RESIDENTIAL % 10 6 kwh/ /unit

Payback on Investment Published in 2004 Published in 2007 14 IEA countries 20 IEA

countries missing Data are not available for all sectors in all countries Coverage

27 Payback on Investment Published in 2004 Published in IEA countries 20 IEA countries Last year: 1998 (Y-6) Last year: 2004 (Y-3) Yes, but still 10 OECD countries missing Data are not available for all sectors in all countries Coverage does not include major Non-OECD countries Joint work with World Bank/LBNL to extend coverage

Despite all the efforts there is a risk of widening and worrying gap

proper supporting data For instance, 149 participants in the meeting on

the 3Ds Dramatic Decrease in Data resources Statistics and statisticians

28 Despite all the efforts there is a risk of widening and worrying gap between the interest for indicators and the resources allocated to collect proper supporting data For instance, 149 participants in the meeting on efficiency goals Increasing Interest for Indicators The 3Is vs. the 3Ds Dramatic Decrease in Data resources Statistics and statisticians are at the basis of the pyramid and constitute the foundation for any sound analysis and policy

29 So, an urgent need to fill the gap by collecting and providing proper p data to analysts The initial templates could constitute a good common tool to collect the data Once again, priority was given to cooperation A two-day retreat with the EU-ODYSSEE people to see how questionnaires could be harmonised Cooperation with APEC Meeting with LBNL to check consistency Further workshop with industry association (WBCSD) The templates/questionnaire have been revised to take into consideration comments and be more userfriendly

30 A quick look at the new templates List of countries Built-in indicators and graphs Menu driven

31 RESIDENTIAL Pre-filled time series Space Heating Space Cooling Water Heating Cooking

32 A large choice of indicators for sector end use Built-in graphs of indicators

33 Why such a gap between the need to have detailed indicators and the difficulty to build them Lack of discussion and understanding between the parties Lack of resources Lack k off expertise i and d experience i

34 Lack of expertise and experience The past situation in energy statistics offices 40s 50s Retirement age 20s 30s gaining experience passing experience

35 The current situation environment modelling private sector 50s Retirement age 40s 20s 30s efficiency policy Temptation to move away from statistics is high Young statisticians only stay a few years Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics No time to transmit their expertise

36 Why such a gap between the need to have detailed indicators and the difficulty to build them Lack of discussion and understanding between the parties Lack of resources Lack of expertise and experience On January 2009, the IEA will organise a workshop to bring around the same table policy makers and energy analysts in charge of energy efficiency indicators as well as statisticians. The workshop is opened to both OECD and selected non-oecd countries. The objective is to highlight gaps and barriers in building and using energy efficiency indicators and to hear from successful countries solutions and best practices. Another objective is to discuss the role of organisations in helping countries building the expertise and capacity to work on indicators.

37 There is an urgent need to act and react The Nobel Prize for Peace has been attributed to work on what the state of the planet could be in the next decades. In March, the OECD published another alarming report However, we do not even know the current situation very well There is a global consensus from and for Governments to urgently take a series of measures to promote efficiency In order to optimise and prioritise these actions, there is first an obvious need to have an accurate view of the energy consumption in all sectors Of course, there is a cost associated to collecting and processing the necessary data. But non optimum decisions often lead to costs which are often much higher. A 1$/bl reduction in the price of oil is equivalent to saving of 85 M$ per day. A lot of money for collecting proper data which should lead to reduce the tension on the oil market and therefore price of oil.

38 There is an urgent need to act and react (cont.) The 145US$/bl sent a clear signal to consumers to do more on energy efficiency (even if prices have now dramatically decreased). Energy efficiency was at the centre of the discussion of the last IEA Ministerial meeting; it will also be one of the focuses of the discussions at the next G8 and G20 Summits in Hokkaido-Toyako. There is no one single silver bullet to establish sound energy efficiency policies. However, having a solid understanding of who consumes what is a prerequisite for any plan of actions. So the importance of having a detailed and timely database. Priorities vary from countries to countries (heating in some countries, biomass or rural electrification in others) A universal template should allow all countries to chose what to collect. The current template could be a starting point which needs to be enriched by inputs from many other organisations. As for the JODI initiative, cooperation between organisations is the main driver and their participation is essential for using the momentum and pulling their member countries with them. Thank you

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