The Mediterranean Leadership Summit

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "The Mediterranean Leadership Summit"

Nickolas Martin
5 years ago
Views:

1 www. Member of In collaboration with The Mediterranean Leadership Summit Energy Networks and Security of Supply in Europe Yassine Bouhara Chairman Tell Group Malta - April 2016

2 POWER TO THE WORLD AREA NEEDED TO COVER THE WORLD ENERGY NEEDS World EU MENAAlgeria Source: BMWi 2000, Q-Cells 2007 Assumption Mono 2

EUROPEAN ENERGY DEPENDENCY DUAL CHALLENGE EU 28 Primary Energy Consumption Breakdown by Fuel (2014) Primary Energy Production: 789,8 Mtoe (2013) Net Imports of Energy : 908,9 Mtoe (2013) Russia is EU

3 EUROPEAN ENERGY DEPENDENCY DUAL CHALLENGE EU 28 Primary Energy Consumption Breakdown by Fuel (2014) Primary Energy Production: 789,8 Mtoe (2013) Net Imports of Energy : 908,9 Mtoe (2013) Russia is EU s 1 st Energy Trading Partner EU s Energy Dependency Rate: 88.4% for Oil and 65.3% for Natural Gas Source: Eurostat 2013 Renewables Hydro electric 6% 7% Nuclear Energy 12% Coal 18% Source: Tell Group analysis, BP Statistical Review 2015 Oil 34% Natural Gas 23% EU 28 Crude Oil Import Breakdown (2013) EU 28 Natural Gas Import Breakdown (2013) Iraq, 3.6% Algeria, 3.9% Others, 14.4% Russia, 33.5% Others, 8.4% Lybia, 1.8% Nigeria, 1.8% Qatar, 6.7% Azerbaidjan, 4.8% Lybia, 5.6% Algeria, 12.8% Russia, 39.0% Kazakhstan, 5.8% Source: Tell Group analysis, Eurostat Nigeria, 8.1% KSA, 8.6% Norway, 11.7% Source: Tell Group analysis, Eurostat Norway, 29.5% 3

analysis, BP Energy Outlook 2035 North African countries are ideally positioned to play a key role in EU s future energy supply scheme Development

4 EUROPE ENERGY SUPPLY CHALLENGES CHRONIC DEFICIT Primary Energy Balance Outlook (in Bn Toe) 4 FSU 2 0 Africa S&C America Middle East Reducing reliance on Russian imports CO2 emissions limits -2 North America Asia Energy demand growth Europe Source: Tell Group analysis, BP Energy Outlook 2035 North African countries are ideally positioned to play a key role in EU s future energy supply scheme Development of energy cooperation framework with North African Countries North African renewable energy plans in line with European clean energy initiatives and targets 4

and Tunisia: Area of 3 million sqm Population of

Resource-rich countries (oil, gas, minerals)

Current Maghreb renewables capacity Renewable

capacity by 2030 Renewable Energy Targets Total

Morocco 82% Hydropower: 1770MW Solar PV / CSP:

GW Wind: 750MW Wind power: 2 GW Total renewable

Hydropower: 66MW Solar PV: 20MW 13% Biomass: 300

5 GW / 500 MW Wind: 245MW Wind power: 1.

22 GW Algeria 8% Hydropower: 228MW Solar PV: 2MW

5 MAGHREB RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONE Region Characteristics: Comprised of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia: Area of 3 million sqm Population of 85 million Common culture, language and heritage Resource-rich countries (oil, gas, minerals) Major potential for solar and wind energy Current Maghreb renewables capacity Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Maghreb renewables capacity by 2030 Renewable Energy Targets Total renewable energy: 2,680MW 2030 targets: 6 GW Morocco 82% Hydropower: 1770MW Solar PV / CSP: 160MW 18% Hydropower: 2 GW Solar PV and CSP: 2 GW Wind: 750MW Wind power: 2 GW Total renewable energy: 323MW 2030 targets: 4 GW Tunisia 10% Hydropower: 66MW Solar PV: 20MW 13% Biomass: 300 MW Solar PV / CSP: 1.5 GW / 500 MW Wind: 245MW Wind power: 1.7 GW Total renewable energy: 255MW 2030 targets: 22 GW Algeria 8% Hydropower: 228MW Solar PV: 2MW 69% Biomass: 1 GW Solar PV / CSP: 13.5 GW / 2 GW CSP: 25MW Wind power: 5 GW Source: Tell Group analysis, Ren21, IRENA 5

ALGERIA SHAPING POWER LANDSCAPE IN MEDITERRANEAN Country

4 million sqm 10 th largest country worldwide Largest

of natural gas (2 nd in Africa) 16th largest reserves of

reserves worldwide One of the highest rate of insolation

6 ALGERIA SHAPING POWER LANDSCAPE IN MEDITERRANEAN Country Characteristics: Surface: 2.4 million sqm 10 th largest country worldwide Largest country of the Mediterranean basin 10th largest reserves of natural gas (2 nd in Africa) 16th largest reserves of crude oil (2 nd in Africa) 3 rd largest shale gas reserves worldwide One of the highest rate of insolation worldwide Crude Oil Natural Gas Shale Gas Solar Energy 12.2 Bn Barrels proven reserves (OPEP) 4.5 Tn m3 proven reserves (OPEP) 20 Tn m3 reserves (EIA) Solar potential of about TWh/y (avg of 5.7 kwh/m2/day) 6

15 Kwh construction of over 50 solar PV projects over the next six years The global cost of the renewable electricity program is expected to reach between $60-100 bn 300 bn m3 of expected total

7 ALGERIA SOLAR ENERGY 13.5GW PLAN Solar map of Algeria Renewable energy Government Plan : 22,000 MW of renewable power generating capacity including 13,500 MW of solar PV at 2030 horizon 20 year PPA and a FiT at circa $0.15 Kwh construction of over 50 solar PV projects over the next six years The global cost of the renewable electricity program is expected to reach between $ bn 300 bn m3 of expected total natural gas savings, over the period of 2011 and 2030 Source: Renewable Energy Partner Pilot Phase Initial deployment Large scale deployment Utility scale deployment Completed Projects 1.1 MW solar PV plant in Ghardaïa testing four different technologies (monocrystallin, polycrystallin, amorpheus and thin film) commissioned in July Projects in final commissioning stage: 243 MW solar PV plants awarded to YINGLI SOLAR 100 MW solar PV plants allocated to BELECTRIC Source: Renewable Energy Partner The Mediterranean Leadership Summit- April

VIABILITY PV Global Installation (GWp) PV Capacity vs Demand (in MW) 120 57 GW in 2015, 64 GW in 2016f 100 100 88 79 80 65 70 56 60 45 38 40 29 31 18 20 7 8 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8 VIABILITY PV Global Installation (GWp) PV Capacity vs Demand (in MW) GW in 2015, 64 GW in 2016f f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f Source: BNEF, WBL-EL Leveraged Cost of Electicity of PV vs Wind ($/KWH) Best 10% Low Manuf Market established in China/SouthEastAsia Next growth wave => India/Turkey/MENA China Taiwan SEA Japan Korea USA Others India Germany ROW EU Demand Capacity Source: BNEF Feb RNE Estimates China Taiwan SEA Japan Korea USA Oth EU China Taiwan SEA Japan Korea USA Others EU India Germany RO Source: NREL, Roland Berger 8

9 MAGHREB RENEWABLE ASSETS TYPICAL RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT Renewable Energy Asset Investment Curve Morocco Market Cycle Algeria Tunisia Mature markets Inception Proliferation Ubiquity Asset Development Stage Pre-consent / Asset Ready to be built Assets Under construction / Expansion Management of operating assets Investor returns Highest Value Creation Expected IRR >25% Moderate Value Creation Expected IRR 10-20% Limited Value Creation Expected IRR <10% Capital Availability Low High High Source: Tell Group analysis, Renewable Energy Partner 9

10 RENEWABLE ENERGY AND JOB CREATION RENEWABLE ENERGY EMPLOYMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Source: IRENA Annual Review

ALGERIA KEY TAKE AWAY HYBRID ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Leader In Mediterranean Basin Opec member Significant Oil, Gas,

Largest Oil extracting company in Africa Energy distribution and management trackrecord Solid Infrastructure Power grid

potential for wind, solar and hydro power Multi technology government renewable energy program Institutional framework New

11 ALGERIA KEY TAKE AWAY HYBRID ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Leader In Mediterranean Basin Opec member Significant Oil, Gas, Shale gas resources Energy provider for south Europe and Maghreb Energy DNA Expertise of O&G exploration and exploitation Largest Oil extracting company in Africa Energy distribution and management trackrecord Solid Infrastructure Power grid covering 99% of population Trans Mediterranean pipelines International power interconnections Energy Diversification Unique potential for wind, solar and hydro power Multi technology government renewable energy program Institutional framework New legislation and energy policies Government tax incentives Attractive Feed-in-tariffs Benefits of Solar Energy Security Connecting Job Prosperity 11

12 POWER TO THE EUROPEAN UNION AREA REQUIRED TO COVER THE EU ENERGY NEEDS EU Source: BMWi 2000, Q-Cells 2007 Assumption Mono 12

13 CONTACT US LUXEMBOURG DUBAI ALGIERS PARIS MONACO ZURICH Tell Group S.A. 128 Boulevard de la Pétrusse L-2330 Luxembourg Tell Limited Emirates Financial Towers, Office 301 DIFC, PO Box T: F: Tell Markets SPA 3 Chemin les Crêtes Hydra, Alger T: F: Tell Capital SAS 13 rue du Dr Lancereaux Paris T: F: Tell SARL 7 av de Grande Bretagne Monaco T: Swiss Hedge Capital AG Gerbergasse 5, 8001 Zürich, Switzerland T: Tell Services DMCC Indigo Tower Office 501 JLT - PO Box T: F: info@ www. twitter.com/tell_group 13

14 DISCLAIMER This document is being provided to you by Tell Limited, a Dubai Financial Services Authority ("DFSA") regulated firm, on the basis that Tell Limited believes on reasonable grounds that you are a Professional Client, as defined by the DFSA. This marketing material is intended only for Professional Clients and no other person should act upon it. This document is intended for initial discussion purposes only and does not create any legally binding obligations on the part of Tell Limited, its affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and authorized agents (collectively, Tell ). This document does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. When making an investment decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation relating to the transaction and not any summary thereof, whether contained within this document or otherwise. Unless otherwise agreed by us in writing, Tell is not acting as your financial adviser or in any other fiduciary capacity with respect to any proposed transaction. Tell has not independently verified the information contained herein. Accordingly, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by Tell as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained or incorporated in this document or any other information provided by Tell in connection herewith. Tell does not accept any liability of whatsoever nature in relation to the information contained in this document or any other information provided in connection herewith. No person has been authorized by Tell to give any information or to make any representation not contained herein, and, if given or made, such information or representation should not be relied upon as having been authorized by Tell. Tell specifically disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, consequential or other losses or damages including loss of profits incurred by you or any third party that may arise from any reliance on this document or for the reliability, accuracy, completeness or timeliness thereof. Furthermore, if there is a Shari a element to any material, the information contained in this document should in no way be considered as a fatwa on any structures or matters discussed herein. The transaction(s) or products(s) mentioned herein may not be appropriate for all investors and before entering into any transaction you should take steps to ensure that you fully understand the transaction(s) and have made an independent appraisal of all the parties involved and independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction(s) in light of your own investment objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction(s). In making such appraisal and assessment, you should rely solely on advice from your own advisers, including, without limitation, your own legal, financial, taxation, accounting and Shari a advisors. If you decide to enter into a business relationship with Tell, you do so in reliance on your own judgment. The distribution of this document and availability of products and services referred to therein in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. You may not distribute or allow or facilitate the distribution of this document, in whole or in part, or offer of any products and services referred to therein without our express written permission. Tell does not represent that this document may be lawfully distributed, or that any products and services referred to therein may be lawfully offered, in compliance with any applicable registration or other requirements in any such jurisdiction, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder, nor does Tell assume any responsibility for facilitating any such distribution or offering. 14

Strengthening the experience and embracing the shift

Strengthening the experience and embracing the shift THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES. IT IS SOLELY FOR USE AT A CAPITAL MARKETS EVENT AND IS PROVIDED