Energy Statistics and IEA Energy Statistics

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1 IEA Training Week IEA, Paris, 8-12 April 2013 Energy Statistics and IEA Energy Statistics Jean-Yves Garnier Head, IEA Energy Statistics Division

2 Energy Statistics and IEA Energy Statistics Overview

3 Any socio-economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics A few examples: Households: electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, mileage of cars,

4 Any socio-economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics A few examples: Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, where to save Even truer for energy companies Refinery: throughputs, stocks Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production

5 Any socio-economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics A few examples: Households: mileage of cars, electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, etc. Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, where to save Even truer for energy companies Refinery: throughputs, stocks Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production Analysts of the energy market: oil, gas, etc. Traders, banks, universities, etc. Policy makers

6 Importance of energy statistics for policy makers IEA Member countries have an obligation to hold 90 days of stocks (net imports/consumption) Need reliable and timely data on imports, consumption and stocks OPEC Member countries: production vs quota Need reliable and timely data on production EU Member countries: obligation to have a minimum share of electricity consumption coming from renewables Need reliable data on renewables Annex 1 countries to the Conference of Parties: respect of the engagement they have ratified when signing the Kyoto Protocol (70% to 80% of GHG come from fuel combustion) Need reliable data on both supply and demand

7 What statistics to collect? Households Energy Unit Cooking Oil Services Coal Physical Unit Agriculture Heating Natural Gas Electricity Socio-Economic Industry Transport Lighting Mining Biomass Money

8 What statistics to collect? Collecting any statistics has a cost However not having proper information could lead to higher costs So, limit the collecting to what is necessary What is necessary depends on your needs

1974 after 1 st Oil Crisis 28 Members Countries (vs.

9 How IEA Statistics developed over time Member countries IEA OECD Autonomous Agency of the OECD Established in 1974 after 1 st Oil Crisis 28 Members Countries (vs. 34 for OECD) 3 Es: Energy security, Economy and Environment

How IEA Statistics developed over time US$/bl 80 70 60 Production Imports/Exports Stocks Diversity (gas, coal,

$37/bl Emissions Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency 30 20 Establishment of the IEA Prices escalating 10 0 1 st Oil Crisis 2

10 How IEA Statistics developed over time US$/bl Production Imports/Exports Stocks Diversity (gas, coal, electricity) Consumption Transformation End-Use Socio-Economic Production Security Price Dependency Oil prices at $37/bl Emissions Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency Establishment of the IEA Prices escalating st Oil Crisis 2 nd Oil Crisis Rio Summit Kyoto Protocol

friendly as possible) A network of focal points An agreed timetable Establish proper dissemination mechanism Allocate proper

11 A few Basic Principles for Establishing an Energy Information System Do not collect statistics for the sake of collecting statistics but collect only statistics which are needed Establish a legal basis Establish a proper reporting mechanism: Questionnaires (as user friendly as possible) A network of focal points An agreed timetable Establish proper dissemination mechanism Allocate proper resources to collect/process the data Do not lock the system. Keep the system live in order to anticipate the evolution of the energy situation

Establish a Legal Basis AGREEMENT ON AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM (As amended to 7 th August 1992) Decisions of Governing Board ACCORD RELATIF A UN PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL DE L ENERGIE

12 Establish a Legal Basis AGREEMENT ON AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM (As amended to 7 th August 1992) Decisions of Governing Board ACCORD RELATIF A UN PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL DE L ENERGIE (Tel qu amendé jusqu au 7 août 1992) ÜBEREINKOMMEN ÜBER EIN INTERNATIONALES ENERGIEPROGRAMM (In der Fassung vom 7. August 1992) + Decisions of Specific Committees (Emergency preparedness, etc.)

13 Establish a proper reporting mechanism (OECD) Five Annual Energy Questionnaires Other Annual: Energy Forecast and R&D Budget for IEA Quarterly Questionnaires: Prices and Taxes questionnaire Monthly Questionnaires: Monthly Oil and Gas Statistics, Joint Oil Data Initiative Electricity production and trade Exceptional Questionnaires: Mainly in case of oil crisis, or ad-hoc activities (e.g.: Non-Energy Use Network)

14 What flows are collected? Production Import Export International Marine Bunkers Stock Changes Domestic Supply Transfers Statistical Differences Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors) Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors) Distribution Losses Final Consumption Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors) Transport (7 sub-sectors) Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors) Non Energy Uses Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWS

15 What products are collected? Coal (17 products/categories) Natural gas Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products) Nuclear Energy Hydro Energy Renewable Energy (19 products/categories) Waste Energy (3 products/categories) Electricity Heat (7 categories) TOTAL: over 75 products/categories

16 An agreed timetable Prepared in June-July National Administrations Work from August to September Sent at end July Sent back to the IEA before end of September

17 The annual OECD statistics cycle Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Questionnaires Processing Databases Publications and CD-ROMS

18 How non-oecd data are collected OECD (34 countries) Non OECD Europe (11 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) A network of statistics contacts in 130 countries Asia (17 countries) Latin America (22 countries) Africa (26 countries) Middle East (13 countries)

19 How non-oecd data are collected (cont.) FAO UN OAPEC IAEA OPEC

20 The annual non-oecd statistics cycle he annual IEA statistics cycle for non-oecd countries Questionnaires Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Processing! Databases Publications and CD-ROMS OECD Non- OECD

For emergency and market analysis the IEA maintains an up-to-date oil database Monthly Oil Questionnaire (MOS for M-2) Monthly Oil Questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination

21 For emergency and market analysis the IEA maintains an up-to-date oil database Monthly Oil Questionnaire (MOS for M-2) Monthly Oil Questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination Refinery data Deliveries Stock levels Stocks on national territory Stocks held for other countries Stocks held abroad Stocks owned on national Territory Stocks in bonded areas Stocks held by major consumers Stocks on board incoming vessels Stocks by governments All other stocks

How are monthly oil data collected and released? National Administrations Emergency Policy MODS www.iea.

AND DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ECONOMIC COMMISSION EUROSTAT AGENCY FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE FOR STATISTICAL DIVISION ENERGY

1) UNIT 25th Oil Market Analysis Attached is the annual questionnaire which provides for the submission of 2000 data and a revision of 1999

However, if data are available earlier, please do not hesitate to send your questionnaire to the Head of Division, Energy Statistics,

In addition, Member States of the European Union and Candidate Countries are requested to transmit the completed questionnaire to Eurostat,

22 How are monthly oil data collected and released? National Administrations Emergency Policy MODS Monthly Oil Survey July 2004 M O S ORGANISATION FOR UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION OF THE ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION STATISTICAL DIVISION EUROPEAN AND DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ECONOMIC COMMISSION EUROSTAT AGENCY FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE FOR STATISTICAL DIVISION ENERGY ENERGY POLICY (QUEST/OIL/1/Rev.1) UNIT 25th Oil Market Analysis Attached is the annual questionnaire which provides for the submission of 2000 data and a revision of 1999 data where applicable. Administrations are requested to complete the questionnaire at the latest 31 October However, if data are available earlier, please do not hesitate to send your questionnaire to the Head of Division, Energy Statistics, Combined Energy Staff, OECD, who will forward the data to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva). In addition, Member States of the European Union and Candidate Countries are requested to transmit the completed questionnaire to Eurostat, Head of Unit, Energy Statistics, Bâtiment Jean Monnet, Plateau du Kirschberg, L-2920, Luxembourg. M-2 J O D I Crude Oil Production Imports Exports Closing Stocks Change Refinery Intake Refinery Output Imports Exports Stocks Demand Closing Change LPG M-1 M-2 Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil 25 th -1st Total Oil Global Database

23 Establish a proper dissemination mechanism Books CDs Internet Free access to Administrations Subscription for others Pay-per-view also available

24 Samples of free information available on the web

25 The IEA Statistics Page on the IEA Website

26 The IEA Statistics Page on the IEA Web Site

27 Energy Stats

28 Sankey flows Total Final Consumption Production and imports Transformation Transformation losses Exports and bunkers

29 Sankey flows

30 The Energy Statistics Division feeds all analyses and programmes ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY & TECHNOLOGY Energy Statistics Division CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE

31 Energy Statistics and IEA Energy Statistics Issues and Answers

32 Problems encountered in energy statistics Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions,.) Etc. Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts Fast Fast turnover turnover in staff: in lack staff of experience, continuity

33 The past situation in energy statistics offices 40s 50s Retirement age 30s 20s gaining experience passing experience

34 The current situation environment modelling 30s policy 40s private sector 50s Retirement age 20s efficiency Temptation to move away from statistics is high Young statisticians only stay a few years Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics No time to transmit their expertise

35 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Harmonisation and Cooperation

36 Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics A user-friendly manual to give necessary information to newcomers to understand/complete annual questionnaires

40 The Manual is now available in 10 languages and widely used all around the world

41 IEA Training and Capacity Building Programme Workshop style training for large groups Hands-on training for small groups

42 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Harmonisation and Cooperation Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings

43 Harmonisation and Cooperation Mexico is a member country of 4 major organisations Secretaria de Energía Mexico UN Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) APEC IEA OLADE OPEC UN

JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries,

UN South Africa APEC Indonesia Philippines UK Netherlands 3 rd

US France IEA/ OECD Denmark Canada Japan Norway Saudi Arabia OPEC

Colombia Argentina PetroVietnam Kuwait Petroleum Co.

44 JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries, organisations and companies Russia PR of China Egypt Gabon India UN South Africa APEC Indonesia Philippines UK Netherlands 3 rd JODI Conference Mexico, May 2002 Germany EUROSTAT Belgium US France IEA/ OECD Denmark Canada Japan Norway Saudi Arabia OPEC Libya Brazil OLADE Mexico Australia Kuwait Iran Nigeria Venezuela Colombia Argentina PetroVietnam Kuwait Petroleum Co. Petrobras Statoil Saudi Aramco Petronas Shell Ecopetrol TotalFinaElf OECD/IEA,

JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries, organisations and companies Madrid July 00 Riyadh Nov 00 Paris Nov 00 10 Years of Commitment and Hard Work Bangkok Apr 01 Vienna May 01 Riyadh

45 JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries, organisations and companies Madrid July 00 Riyadh Nov 00 Paris Nov Years of Commitment and Hard Work Bangkok Apr 01 Vienna May 01 Riyadh Nov. 01 Vienna Oct 01 Luxem. Jan 02 Mexico May 02 Vienna Apr 02 Osaka Sep 02 Paris July 02 Vienna Jan 03 Cairo Oct 03 Paris Dec 03 Amst. May 04 Vienna Jun 04 Bali Oct 04 Riyadh Jan 05 Paris Jul 05 Riyadh Nov 05 Paris Nov 05 Luxem. Jan 06 Doha May 06 N York May 06 Riyadh Nov 06 Vienna Sep 06 Paris Nov 07 Amst. May 04 Mexico May 02 Paris Dec 03 Rome May 08 Luxem. June 08 Paris Oct 08 Quito June 09 Vienna Mar 09 Cancun Mar 10 Paris Dec 10 Riyadh 11 International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings Beijing Oct 11 N York Sep 11

46 The JODI database is open to all and updated every month The database is now used by analysts, oil companies, traders, governments world wide.

47 JODI: a need to adapt to a new reality Joint Oil Data Initiative Organisations: APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD, (GECF for gas)

November 2007, IEA, Paris 21 international/regional organisations Both

48 InterEnerStat International Energy Statistics Strengthening Harmonisation and Cooperation 2 nd InterEnerStat Workshop, November 2007, IEA, Paris 21 international/regional organisations Both data providers and users Harmonisation of definitions Common training sessions A joint website

49 Agreement on harmonised definitions reached at the end of 2010

50 So, one questionnaire to all, dream or reality? FAO UN EUROSTAT OAPEC AFREC? OPEC

51 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Harmonisation and Cooperation Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings

52 Raising the profile of statistics and the role of statisticians

In fact, the relationship between policy makers,

a 3-way street Decision makers Need the right data

do the work Should be fully involved in the whole

collect the data Policy makers need to understand

the data Advisors to policy makers Interface

53 In fact, the relationship between policy makers, analysts and statisticians should be more based on a 3-way street Decision makers Need the right data immediately Allocation of resources The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in the whole process Statisticians need to understand why they collect the data Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data

54 On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can be raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullah

55 Do not lock the system. Keep the system live to anticipate the evolution of the energy situation There are constant changes in the energy sector New products Orimulsion Oil shale, tar sands LNG Ethanol New forms of energy Wind Photovoltaic Hydrogen New players Liberalisation Development of trade (oil, coal, gas, electricity) New Needs Kyoto protocol Energy efficiency

56 Energy efficiency is on top of the energy agenda of many countries Saving energy in all sectors: Residential Transports Industry Services Electricity generation Increasing exports - reducing imports Increasing domestic (and global) energy security Strengthening RD&D Creating jobs Reducing greenhouse gas (mainly CO 2 ) emissions

57 Energy efficiency is becoming a priority, but in many cases there is no data to launch sound energy efficiency policy and actions And the 1 st priority is... Industry! Residential And the last priority is... Residential! Lack of proper indicators could lead to major uncertainties for formulating action plans

58 The other extreme would be to have too many data Please Help Me but it would be a much easier situation!

/sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) The need to collect additional data

59 What data for what indicators? Aggregated Indicators TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons./Population CO2/GDP PPP Efficiency Elec. Prod. Disaggregated Indicators Cons./ton cement Heating Cons./sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) The need to collect additional data for building meaningful indicators Process Efficiency The Indicator Pyramid Dry process Condensing boiler Litre/100km (vintage)

60 What data for what indicators? floor area Not only energy data, but also activity data are necessary

61 In order to collect the data for building indicators the IEA has designed a new annual questionnaire

Just one word on the importance of reliable statistics for forecasting 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 Inaccuracy in basic data can lead to enormous differences in forecasts 190 130 120 110 100 100

62 Just one word on the importance of reliable statistics for forecasting Inaccuracy in basic data can lead to enormous differences in forecasts basic data what if 2005 data were underestimated and 2010 overestimated by 2.5% what if 2005 data were overestimated and 2010 data underestimated by 5%

Statistician: There is 50cl in the bottle

63 However, reliable data does not prevent interpretation The Optimist: Hi everybody! This is great, the bottle is half full The Statistician: There is 50cl in the bottle of 100 cl The Pessimist: Bad news, guys, the bottle is half empty

Application of the bottle theory to stock

observed over the last 5 years 0 Jan Feb

64 Application of the bottle theory to stock levels Stock Levels 400 Stocks fell for the third consecutive month Stock levels in May were at Stocks in May were 2.5 times higher than the average level observed over the last 5 years 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average

Choice of words is another door open to interpretation May 23 Oil maintained its steady decline on Monday May 24 Oil climbed back toward $50 a barrel on Tuesday May 25 Oil hovered within sight of

65 Choice of words is another door open to interpretation May 23 Oil maintained its steady decline on Monday May 24 Oil climbed back toward $50 a barrel on Tuesday May 25 Oil hovered within sight of $50 a barrel on Wednesday May 26 Oil prices above $51 a barrel on Thursday May 27 Oil prices jumped to almost $52 a barrel Friday Can going from above $51 to almost $52 be considered as a real jump?

It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, It took 35+ years for the IEA to establish its statistics but it is a never ending process since we are constantly expending coverage and struggling

66 A few words to conclude Energy statistics are the basis for any sound energy policy. As a consequence, it is essential to allocate proper resources to collect the necessary data for monitoring and planning You don t build reliable statistics overnight. It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, It took 35+ years for the IEA to establish its statistics but it is a never ending process since we are constantly expending coverage and struggling for improving quality Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to improve quality and coverage of energy statistics Energy market analysts, decision makers, energy efficiency and renewables analysts, all need more global, more detailed, more timely, more reliable statistics Statisticians try to do their best to meet this demand but need support of analysts and policy makers for feedback, comments and proper resources Be sure that the IEA is extremely committed to further improve energy statistics in close cooperation with OECD and non-oecd countries as well as with regional and international organisations Thank you

Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics

IEA Energy Statistics Training Week IEA, Paris, 4-8 March 2013 Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics Why and how to collect necessary energy statistics Jean-Yves Garnier Head,