Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics

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1 IEA Energy Statistics Training Week IEA, Paris, 2-6 March 2015 Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics Why and how to collect necessary energy statistics Duncan Millard Chief Statistician Head, Energy Data Centre

2 Overview Why collect energy stats? The IEA Current issues Dissemination

3 Why collect energy stats?

4 Because they are needed and used A few examples: Households: mileage of cars, electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, etc. Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, use - where to save Even truer for energy companies Refinery: throughputs, stocks Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production Analysts of the energy market: oil, gas, etc. Traders, banks, universities, etc. Policy makers

5 Importance of energy statistics for policy makers Energy is a major component of any economy: GDP, balance of payment, trade, taxation, employment, etc. Secure access to energy for all, security of supply Liberalisation Prices and taxes Fuel poverty Environment (GHG, land use, water, desertification, etc.) International obligations Energy efficiency

Importance of energy statistics for policy makers IEA Member countries have an obligation to hold 90 days of stocks (net imports/consumption) Need reliable and timely data on imports, consumption and

6 Importance of energy statistics for policy makers IEA Member countries have an obligation to hold 90 days of stocks (net imports/consumption) Need reliable and timely data on imports, consumption and stocks OPEC Member countries: production vs quota Need reliable and timely data on production EU Member countries: obligation to have a minimum share of electricity consumption coming from renewables Need reliable data on renewables Annex 1 countries to the Conference of Parties: respect of the engagement they have ratified when signing the Kyoto Protocol (70% to 80% of GHG come from fuel combustion) Need reliable data on both supply and demand

7 A Policy Delivery Cycle our opportunity? Note: policy making is rarely as straight forward as a simple stage by stage approach. Policy stages may need to be iterated or repeated if it is evident that the policy isn t right.

8 The Policy Delivery Cycle where stats hopefully impacts Monitoring performance indicators and expected benefits

9 The Policy Delivery Cycle where stats can impact Monitoring performance indicators and expected benefits Evaluation and reporting, eg GHGs Do we really understand what the problem or issue is? Are you sure there is a gap? What policy or evidence is already out there & what are others doing in UK/abroad? What outcome would indicate success Undertake pilots & collect good practice Benchmark against other schemes Agree and put in place delivery arrangements with delivery partners and regulators Put in place policy monitoring, evaluation & reporting mechanisms Understand, quantify & analyse impacts, costs, risks & benefits of policy options, including on GHGs Address evidence gaps & identify research & analysis required

10 IEA statistics feed all IEA studies and analyses ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY & TECHNOLOGY Energy Statistics GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMICS GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY Training

11 What statistics to collect? Cooking Oil Efficiency Households Energy Unit Services Coal Physical Unit Agriculture Heating Natural Gas Electricity Socio-Economic Industry Transport Lighting Mining Biomass Money

12 What statistics to collect? Collecting any statistics has a cost However not having proper information could lead to higher costs So, limit the collecting to what is necessary What is necessary depends on your needs

Questionnaires (as user friendly as possible) A network of contacts An agreed timetable Establish proper dissemination mechanism

13 A few Basic Principles for Establishing an Energy Information System Do not collect statistics for the sake of collecting statistics but collect only statistics which are needed Establish a legal basis Establish a proper reporting mechanism: Questionnaires (as user friendly as possible) A network of contacts An agreed timetable Establish proper dissemination mechanism Allocate proper resources to collect/process the data Review methodology and process, to anticipate and adapt to change in the energy situation

14 Quick thoughts on data quality Understand source data Has data contact changed Can you explain the change Examine revisions are they always going in same direction (ie always upwards) Is data collection keeping track of policy changes

15 Real data varies So ask why?

16 Because business varies

17 The International Energy Agency History Role International coordination and cooperation

1974 after 1 st Oil Crisis 29 Members Countries (vs.

18 International Energy Agency Member countries IEA OECD Autonomous Agency of the OECD Established in 1974 after 1 st Oil Crisis 29 Members Countries (vs. 34 for OECD) 3 Es: Energy security, Economy and Environment

How IEA Statistics developed over time US$/bl 80 70 60 Production Imports/Exports Stocks Diversity (gas, coal,

$37/bl Emissions Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency 30 20 Establishment of the IEA Prices escalating 10 0 1 st Oil Crisis 2

19 How IEA Statistics developed over time US$/bl Production Imports/Exports Stocks Diversity (gas, coal, electricity) Consumption Transformation End-Use Socio-Economic Production Security Price Dependency Oil prices at $37/bl Emissions Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency Establishment of the IEA Prices escalating st Oil Crisis 2 nd Oil Crisis Rio Summit Kyoto Protocol

Organisation of the International Energy Agency Communication & Information Office Legal

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant DIRECTORATE

America Training & Capacity Building DIRECTORATE OF ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY DIRECTORATE

Power Markets Oil Industry & Markets Energy Efficiency & Environment Energy Technology

20 Organisation of the International Energy Agency Communication & Information Office Legal Counsel Energy Data Centre Information Systems & Buildings Services Personnel & Finance EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant DIRECTORATE OF GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY Europe, Middle East & Africa Country Studies Asia Pacific & Latin America Training & Capacity Building DIRECTORATE OF ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY DIRECTORATE OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY & TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE OF GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMICS Gas, Coal & Power Markets Oil Industry & Markets Energy Efficiency & Environment Energy Technology Policy Energy Economics and Policy Resources and Investment Renewable Energy Emergency Policy Energy Modelling

The IEA Energy Data Centre Head of Division,

Emissions Prices and Taxes Non OECD Member

Statistics Quarterly Coal Monthly Electricity,

Statistics Annual Energy Balances, CO2 emissions

21 The IEA Energy Data Centre Head of Division, Chief Statistician Desktop Publishing Secretariat Oil and Natural Gas Coal, Electricity and Renewables Energy balances CO 2 Emissions Prices and Taxes Non OECD Member Countries Monthly and Annual Oil and Gas Statistics Quarterly Coal Monthly Electricity, Annual Electricity, Coal and Renewables Statistics Annual Energy Balances, CO2 emissions Prices and Taxes Energy Efficiency Annual Energy Statistics and Balances for Non-OECD countries

22 The Legal Basis AGREEMENT ON AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM (As amended to 7 th August 1992) Decisions of Governing Board ACCORD RELATIF A UN PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL DE L ENERGIE (Tel qu amendé jusqu au 7 août 1992) ÜBEREINKOMMEN ÜBER EIN INTERNATIONALES ENERGIEPROGRAMM (In der Fassung vom 7. August 1992) + Decisions of Specific Committees (Emergency preparedness, etc.)

The IEA reporting mechanism Five Annual Energy Questionnaires Other Annual: Energy Forecast and R&D Budget for IEA Quarterly Questionnaires: Prices and Taxes questionnaire Monthly Questionnaires:

23 The IEA reporting mechanism Five Annual Energy Questionnaires Other Annual: Energy Forecast and R&D Budget for IEA Quarterly Questionnaires: Prices and Taxes questionnaire Monthly Questionnaires: Monthly Oil and Gas Statistics, Joint Oil Data Initiative Electricity production and trade Exceptional Questionnaires: Mainly in case of oil crisis, or ad-hoc activities (e.g.: Non-Energy Use Network)

24 What flows are collected? Production Import Export International Marine Bunkers Stock Changes Domestic Supply Transfers Statistical Differences Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors) Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors) Distribution Losses Final Consumption Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors) Transport (7 sub-sectors) Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors) Non Energy Uses Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWS

25 What products are collected? Coal (17 products/categories) Natural gas Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products) Nuclear Energy Hydro Energy Renewable Energy (19 products/categories) Waste Energy (3 products/categories) Electricity Heat (7 categories) TOTAL: over 75 products/categories

26 The annual OECD statistics cycle Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Questionnaires Processing (including liaison with countries) Databases Publications and CD-ROMS

27 How non-oecd data are collected OECD (34 countries) Non OECD Europe (11 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) A network of statistics contacts in 140 countries Asia (17 countries) Latin America (22 countries) Africa (26 countries) Middle East (13 countries)

28 How non-oecd data are collected (cont.) FAO UN OAPEC IAEA OPEC

29 The annual non-oecd statistics cycle he annual IEA statistics cycle for non-oecd countries Questionnaires Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Processing! Databases Publications and CD-ROMS OECD Non- OECD

For emergency and market analysis the IEA maintains an up-to-date oil database Monthly Oil Questionnaire (MOS for M-2) Monthly Oil Questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination

30 For emergency and market analysis the IEA maintains an up-to-date oil database Monthly Oil Questionnaire (MOS for M-2) Monthly Oil Questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination Refinery data Deliveries Stock levels Stocks on national territory Stocks held for other countries Stocks held abroad Stocks owned on national Territory Stocks in bonded areas Stocks held by major consumers Stocks on board incoming vessels Stocks by governments All other stocks

How are monthly oil data collected and released? National Administrations Emergency Policy MODS www.iea.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ECONOMIC COMMISSION EUROSTAT AGENCY FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE FOR STATISTICAL DIVISION ENERGY ENERGY POLICY (QUEST/OIL/1/Rev.

Administrations are requested to complete the questionnaire at the latest 31 October 2001.

forward the data to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva).

31 How are monthly oil data collected and released? National Administrations Emergency Policy MODS Monthly Oil Survey July 2004 M O S ORGANISATION FOR UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION OF THE ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION STATISTICAL DIVISION EUROPEAN AND DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ECONOMIC COMMISSION EUROSTAT AGENCY FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE FOR STATISTICAL DIVISION ENERGY ENERGY POLICY (QUEST/OIL/1/Rev.1) UNIT 25th Oil Market Analysis Attached is the annual questionnaire which provides for the submission of 2000 data and a revision of 1999 data where applicable. Administrations are requested to complete the questionnaire at the latest 31 October However, if data are available earlier, please do not hesitate to send your questionnaire to the Head of Division, Energy Statistics, Combined Energy Staff, OECD, who will forward the data to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva). In addition, Member States of the European Union and Candidate Countries are requested to transmit the completed questionnaire to Eurostat, Head of Unit, Energy Statistics, Bâtiment Jean Monnet, Plateau du Kirschberg, L-2920, Luxembourg. M-2 J O D I Crude Oil Production Imports Exports Closing Stocks Change Refinery Intake Refinery Output Imports Exports Stocks Demand Closing Change LPG M-1 M-2 Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil 25 th -1st Total Oil Global Database

32 Issues with energy statistics

33 Problems encountered in energy statistics Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions,.) Policy monitoring (hopefully!). Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts Fast Fast turnover turnover in staff: in lack staff of experience, continuity

34 How the IEA helps to address these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Harmonisation and Cooperation Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Involvement of stats in Policy

35 Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics A user-friendly manual to give necessary information to newcomers to understand/complete annual questionnaires

39 The Manual is now available in 10 languages and widely used all around the world

40 How the IEA helps to address these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Harmonisation and Cooperation Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Involvement of stats in Policy

Harmonisation and Cooperation The Joint Organisations Data

definitions on oil statistics Cooperation between 7 organisations

InterEnerStat Initiative Cooperation between 20+ organisations

41 Harmonisation and Cooperation The Joint Organisations Data Initiative A global oil database updated every month Harmonised definitions on oil statistics Cooperation between 7 organisations Extension to natural gas Raising profile of energy statistics The InterEnerStat Initiative Cooperation between 20+ organisations Harmonisation of all flows and products Pave the way to one common questionnaire

JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries,

UN South Africa APEC Indonesia Philippines UK Netherlands 3 rd

US France IEA/ OECD Denmark Canada Japan Norway Saudi Arabia OPEC

Colombia Argentina PetroVietnam Kuwait Petroleum Co.

42 JODI: The key to success: cooperation between countries, organisations and companies Russia PR of China Egypt Gabon India UN South Africa APEC Indonesia Philippines UK Netherlands 3 rd JODI Conference Mexico, May 2002 Germany EUROSTAT Belgium US France IEA/ OECD Denmark Canada Japan Norway Saudi Arabia OPEC Libya Brazil OLADE Mexico Australia Kuwait Iran Nigeria Venezuela Colombia Argentina PetroVietnam Kuwait Petroleum Co. Petrobras Statoil Saudi Aramco Petronas Shell Ecopetrol TotalFinaElf OECD/IEA,

43 One questionnaire for all: ultimate objective UN OAPEC? AFREC OPEC

Mexico (in kbd) 1995 1996 1997 1998 APEC 2653 2903 3087 3134 IEA 2741 2872

44 Harmonisation and Cooperation Mexico is a member country of 4 major organisations Secretaria de Energía Mexico UN Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) APEC IEA OLADE OPEC UN

45 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Harmonisation and Cooperation Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Involvement of stats in Policy

46 Stats systems need to adapt There are constant changes in the energy sector New products Oil shale, tar sands Shale gas LNG Ethanol New forms of energy Wind Photovoltaic Hydrogen Developing issues Liberalisation Development of trade (oil, coal, gas, electricity) Kyoto protocol/cop Energy efficiency

Analysts all agree on the future role of efficiency Gt CO2 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis 2010 2015 2020

47 Analysts all agree on the future role of efficiency Gt CO Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO ppmcase ETP2010 analysis CCS 19% Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% Energy efficiency will account for almost half of the reduction

year to maintain growth 2% per year From 1990 to 2008 it

48 However, what is the current situation? From 1974 to 1990, energy efficiency contributed to 2% per year to maintain growth 2% per year From 1990 to 2008 it contributed to less than 1% per year 0.8% per year So, why little when much more should be done?

Collecting what and how for the Residential

sector Collecting what and how for the Industry

sector Validating the data Disseminating the

49 Improved data needed Table of contents Introduction - Why a manual? What are energy efficiency indicators? How to collect the date for indicators? Collecting what and how for the Residential sector Collecting what and how for the Services sector Collecting what and how for the Industry sector Collecting what and how for the Transport sector Validating the data Disseminating the data Annexes Great questionnaire! But how to collect the data? And what indicators to build with these data?

50 Overview of the Residential Chapter Each indicator repertoriated: Example: A3a A for appliances + 1 general 2- detailed 3 very detailed A smiley face indicates that this indicator is the recommended one

51 The Annex: An essential part of the Manual If the value of the Manual is in the first chapters, the value is certainly also in the Annex Identification number: R: Residential Su: Survey Background Survey: Sample, Frequency, Data 160 practices covering surveys, modelling, metering and administrative sources Comments: Challenges Key learnings Documents Links (e.version)

52 Dissemination

53 Why is dissemination important Official statistics are fundamental to good government, to the delivery of public services and to decision-making in all sectors of society preamble to UK Code of Practise for Official statistics

sectors of society preamble to UK Code of Practise for Official statistics

54 Why is dissemination important Official statistics are fundamental to good government, to the delivery of public services and to decision-making in all sectors of society preamble to UK Code of Practise for Official statistics Quality data data produced to good and open methodology that are used and make an impact

55 Disseminating IEA Statistics: the target groups IEA studies/analyses Member countries Policy makers Energy analysts Traders, banks Journalists Academia The man in the street

56 Establish a proper dissemination mechanism Books CDs Internet KWES Free access to Administrations Subscription for others Pay-per-view also available

57 Good chart?

58 Good chart? UK Energy consumption by main industrial groups 2009 Unclassified 12% Iron& steel and non - ferrous metals 8% Mineral products 11% Chemicals 17% Other industries 21% Mechanical engineering and Vehicles metal products 5% 5% Paper, priniting publishing 9% Food, drink & tobacco 12%

59 Clearer chart? UK Energy Consumption by main industrial groups 2009 Paper, priniting publishing 9% Other industries 21% Unclassified 12% Food, drink & tobacco 12% Vehicles 5% Iron& steel and non - ferrous metals 8% Mechanical engineering and metal products 5% Chemicals 17% Source: Energy Consumption in the UK 2010 Mineral products 11%

60 Mtoe A good picture is worth a thousand words Charts Everyone can understand a good chart! UK Final Energy Consumption Has been on the decline since Cold year Record decline in 2011, a fall of 7%

61 Dissemination means visibility The Key World Energy Statistics is also available as an iphone and Android application. In 2012 the app became much more user-friendly and interactive than the previous versions IEA Stats A special version is also available for ipad A Windows version now available

62 Dissemination means visibility Map access to any particular country s data Access to data in 3 clicks maximum User-friendly 20 years of data New user-friendly features Dynamics Indicators maps Sankey flows

63 The IEA website

64 A quick overview of the Agenda Monday 2 Tuesday 3 Wednesday 4 Thursday 5 Friday 6 Opening Introduction to energy statistics Annual oil Renewables IEA database structure and Energy Data Center Preparing estimates of CO 2 emissions Energy statistics in a selected OECD country: France Examples of national energy data collection systems Challenges in national energy data collection Coal statistics Monthly oil Annual gas Monthly gas Easy access to IEA Statistics: Beyond 20 files Electricity and heat Electricity and heat Checks and consistency From basic statistics to energy balances Tracking energy prices Energy efficiency indicators Energy Efficiency Indicators (cont.) Closing

It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, It took 40 years for the IEA to establish its statistics but it is a never ending process since we are constantly expending coverage and struggling

65 A few words to conclude Energy statistics are the basis for any sound energy policy. As a consequence, it is essential to allocate proper resources to collect the necessary data for monitoring and planning You don t build reliable statistics overnight. It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, It took 40 years for the IEA to establish its statistics but it is a never ending process since we are constantly expending coverage and struggling for improving quality Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to improve quality and coverage of energy statistics The IEA is extremely committed to strengthen cooperation with OECD and non-oecd countries as well as with regional and international organisations This is the reason why we are delighted to be with you for the next five days in order for us to better understand strengths and weaknesses of energy statistics in your respective countries and for sharing our own experience of international energy statistics. It is our sincere hope that this workshop will further strengthen the relationship between you and us, and between your countries and the International Energy Agency. Thank you

Introduction to Energy Statistics and to IEA Energy Statistics

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