World Economic Dynamics (WED) Model: Coal consumption modeling and forecasting. Inforum World Conference Alexandria, USA Nina Ryabtseva, Rosneft

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1 World Economic Dynamics (WED) Model: Coal consumption modeling and forecasting Inforum World Conference Alexandria, USA Nina Ryabtseva, Rosneft

2 WED CONTENT Economic modeling and forecasting Primary energy modeling and forecasting Electricity output modeling and forecasting Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Gas consumption modeling and forecasting Coal consumption modeling and forecasting

3 Modeling and forecasting coal consumption Additional methods of modeling and forecasting coal consumption in the model WED: Coal consumption model ( the key consumers) Coal intensity calculation Purpose of additional modeling and forecasting coal consumption: Control of the derived coal consumption for countries until 245, obtained by balancing method; Forecasting the coal consumption structure by sectors and structure of the electric power generation by type of resources. As a result, there will be more qualitative forecast of the coal consumption in the world. Data source: IEA energy balances

4 Coal = Anthracite + coking coal + other bituminous coal + sub-bituminous coal + lignite

5 Coal consumption review Structure of coal consumption by countries mln toe 4, 3, 2, 1, China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa Others Share of coal consumption by electricity sector, 211 1,8 For the last 23 years the volume of global coal consumption increased by 8% and amounted to about 4 billion toe. The amount of China coal consumption in 213 exceeded the consumption of all other countries, taken together. 6 countries account for 85% of the global demand for coal. 1% 91% 8% 6% 52% 67% 73% 58% 59% 63% 4% 2% % China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa Source: IEA, BP World

6 1. Coal consumption model Coal consumption Electricity sector Others unit coal consumption for electric power generation - Electric power generation from gas from oil products other sector s unit coal consumption GDP hydropower nuclear energy from other renewables Electricity power generation from coal

7 Electricity production structure by types of resources 211 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% 5% 5% 15% 7% 2% 2% 78% 19% 24% 1% 43% 12% 3% 1% 1% 68% 12% 1% 28% 21% 2% 26% 16% 16% 49% 3% 15% 1% 5% 94% Other renewables Hydro Nuclear energy Gas Oil and oil products Coal Source: IEA 245 % 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa 6% 1% 8% 1% 12% 4% 11% 27% 2% 7% 12% 1% 23% 52% 34% 33% 1% 1% 4% 37% 13% 26% 22% 23% 43% 2% 3% 1% 1% 99% China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Af rica Other renewables Hydro Nuclear energy gas oil and oil products Coal

8 Assumptions unit coal consumption for electric power generation should decline in every country (the same method as it was for gas model); Due to the fact that the share of electricity production from oil products is minor we consider it to be constant throughout the whole forecasting period; The growth of electricity production from other renewables is proportional to the growth of other renewables consumption; Other s sector unit coal consumption - the same method as it was for gas model. The unique characteristics of each country are being taken into account.

9 Coal: forecast unit coal consumption for electric power generation mln toe/twh.35.3 Forecast China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa Share of electricity produced from coal 1% 8% Forecast 6% 4% 2% % China USA India EU RF Republic of South Africa

10 Other s sector unit coal consumption 12 toe/ $ mln China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa 6 5

11 2. The coal intensity calculation: methodology Coal intensity Annual growth rates Regression CIt = a GDP(t-1)+b Regression coefficients GDP elasticity of coal intensity Coal intensity until 245 GDP GDP forecast Annual growth rates (t-1) Annual growth rates (t-1) Annual growth rates of coal intensity until 245 Coal consumption forecast Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 4-step methodology: preparing data, regression, calculation of annual growth rates, calculation of coal forecast Possible difficulties/restraints/problems: different amount of factual data for different countries

12 Coal intensity: forecast toe/ $ mln 5 Forecast China USA India EU RUS Republic of South Africa

13 Coal consumption, mln toe: forecast China balancing method Coal model Calculation 2 of сoal 1 intensity USA Balancing method Coal Model Calculation of coal intensity India Balancing method Coal Model Calculation of coal intensity

14 Coal consumption, mln toe: forecast EU Balancing method Coal Model Calculation of coal intensity South Africa RUS Balancing method Coal Model Calculation of coal intensity Balancing method Coal Model Calculation of coal intensity

15 Thank you for your attention!