Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Senior Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio

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1 Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Senior Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio

2 University of Texas at San Antonio Institute for Economic Development Eagle Ford Shale Community Development Program (21 Counties in South Texas) Small Business Development Centers - SBDC (79 Counties in South, West and Central Texas) Rural Business Program (79 Counties in South Texas) Procurement Technical Assistance Center (Texas) JP Morgan Chase Veteran's Program (Texas) Southwest Trade Adjustment Assistance Center (TX, OK, LA) SBDC National Information Clearinghouse (National) Minority Business Center (National) Community and Business Research (National, Int l) International Trade Center (Mexico, Central/South America, Caribbean, North Africa)

3 UTSA Institute for Economic Development Research at the Institute focuses on research projects that help business and policymakers plan for a dynamic future: Economic Impact Studies Community Development Studies (I-35, SH 130) EB-5 Immigrant Investor Regional Center Impact Studies Analysis on Various Topics: Eagle Ford Shale San Antonio Missions South Texas Medical Center University of Texas System Targeted Industry Recruitment / Workforce Analysis Repurposing of Military Bases for Commercial Use

4 UTSA Institute for Economic Development As the Research Arm of UTSA s Institute for Economic Development we are dedicated to serving: Economic development corporations (e.g., SA EDF) City, state and federal governments Workforce development boards Businesses Associations Other community stakeholders

5 In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; in practice, there is. - Yogi Berra

6 History doesn t repeat itself. But it does rhyme. Mark Twain

7 Key Contributors to Oil Price Fluctuation Global Supply OPEC output quotas (up and down), new supplies (including shale oil) Global Demand Demand changes from emerging economies, such as India and China Oil Inventory Demand Expectation of shortages due to uncertainty such as political instability (e.g., Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela, Libya, Iran) Speculation Plays a role, but often overstated Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (April 2012)

9 Energy Consumption 100,000,000,000,000,000 BTUs (U.S.) 500,000,000,000,000,000 BTUs (World) 600,000,000,000,000,000 BTUs (World 2030)

11 Electricity Generation Component 12% Renewables (Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal) 19% Nuclear ~70% Fossil Fuels

13 Key Trends Since 1990, coal generated electricity has dropped from over 50% to 39% (as of 2014) Nonhydro renewables (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas, and municipal solid waste) now regularly exceed hydropower Wind-generated electricity has grown from 0.2% in 1990 to 6% in 2014 In the same period, solar has risen from 0% to 1% Source: EIA (How is the fuel mix for U.S. electricity generation changing?)

14 Major Factors Contributing to Changes in the Electricity Generation Mix Declining natural gas prices Slowing growth in electricity demand Implementing federal air pollution emissions regulations Meeting state requirements to use more renewable resources Using federal and state financial incentives for renewable resources Source: EIA (How is the fuel mix for U.S. electricity generation changing?)

19 Why Do We Have a Global Oil Market?

20 The Shape of Things to Come

21 U.S. now has ready access to long-term domestic supplies of low-cost natural gas Has the potential to significantly transform passenger and commercial vehicle usage Conversion of refueling stations and vehicles to use natural gas should be addressed simultaneously

22 Approximately 115,000 conventional gasoline stations in the U.S. Approximately 1550 CNG fueling stations in the U.S.

24 Input to Electric Generation Power Plants Feedstock for Manufacturers Facilities (Chemicals, Plastics, Fertilizers, Steel, etc.) Conversion of Local Fleets to CNG Vehicles LNG Export

30 Origin CH 4 Emission Mass (Tg/a) Type (%/a) Total (%/a) Natural Emissions Wetlands (incl. Rice 225 agriculture) Termites Ocean Hydrates Natural Total Anthropogenic Emissions Energy Landfills Ruminants (Livestock) Waste treatment Biomass burning Anthropogenic Total

36 Thank you! Overview of Energy Sources February 2016 Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Senior Research Director UTSA Institute for Economic Development

Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio

Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc. Researchers: Sheryllynn Roberts, Ph.D., Hisham Eid, Ricardo Abalos, Ting Wang, Emiliano Calderon and Karla